The Gallup Organization began measuring approval ratings in the late 1930s to gauge how much public support a president had for the way he was doing his job. Approval rating surveys measure public evaluations of a politician, institution, policy, or public figure, as well as judgments on public issues. Ratings rise and fall with the level of public approval or disapproval. Polls are conducted all the time, but they become more frequent during election campaigns.

Today, the presidential job approval question is believed to be the most frequently asked question in political surveys, and it is one of the most useful measures of a president’s public standing.

What Is an Approval Rating?

An approval rating is the percentage of respondents who have a favorable opinion of how a political leader or group is doing their job.

How Are Approval Ratings Measured?

Approval ratings are measured through polling, a step-by-step scientific process for gathering data. It involves the following:

• Sampling: Pollsters randomly select a group of people who fairly represent the population. These may be adults in general or people drawn from a registered voters list.
• Contacting: Pollsters reach respondents by randomly calling cell phone and landline numbers, or through verified online panels.
• Questioning: Respondents are asked simple, standard, neutral questions such as: “Do you approve or disapprove of the way the president is handling their job?”
• Data weighting: Pollsters adjust the sample data to match known demographics such as age, race, gender, and political party, so the results are balanced.
• Scoring: The final score is the percentage of respondents who approve.

How Are Approval Ratings Calculated?

Approval ratings are calculated from respondents’ answers. The process works like this:

1. Asking the question: Pollsters ask respondents a question with simple choices such as “approve,” “disapprove,” or “not sure.”
2. Counting the responses: Pollsters count the number of respondents who:
   • Approve
   • Disapprove
   • Are not sure or have no opinion
3. Doing the math: The number of “approve” answers is divided by the total number of respondents, then multiplied by 100 to get the approval rating as a percentage.

Key Terms

• Approval rating: The percentage of respondents who approve.
• Net approval: The approval percentage minus the disapproval percentage. The result can be positive or negative.
• Aggregating: Combining results from several independent polls into an average to reduce the error of any single poll.

Example: A random sample of 1,000 respondents is asked, “Do you approve or disapprove of the way the president is handling their job?” 65% say they disapprove, 30% say they approve, and 5% are undecided.

• Approval rating: 30%
• Disapproval rating: 65%
• No opinion: 5%
• Net approval: 30% − 65% = −35

What Is Margin of Error?

Margin of error (MOE) is a statistical range, usually written as plus or minus a number of percentage points (for example, ±3%), that shows how much a survey result might differ from the true value in the full population being studied. A smaller margin means higher precision. A larger margin means more uncertainty.

Put simply, pollsters don’t survey everyone. They survey a sample, and the margin of error tells you how far the sample result might be from what you would have found if you had surveyed everyone.

Example: A survey finds that 62% of respondents are satisfied with the president’s job performance. With a margin of error of ±3%, the true satisfaction rate is likely somewhere between 59% and 65%. That range reflects the fact that a sample is never a perfect representation of the population.

Margin of error usually assumes a 95% confidence level, meaning the true number will fall inside that range 95 times out of 100. Sample size, confidence level, and variability within the population all affect the margin of error.

Common mistakes when interpreting margin of error:

• Treating the MOE as a guarantee
• Ignoring the MOE when comparing two numbers
• Applying the overall MOE to subgroup results
• Confusing margin of error with bias

A complete, accurate statement looks like this: “62% of surveyed respondents reported being satisfied with the president’s job performance (n=400, MOE ±4.8%, 95% confidence level).”

Limitations of margin of error:

• It only measures random sampling error.
• It does not account for human bias, poor question wording, or respondents giving inaccurate answers.

Factors That Affect Approval Ratings

Several factors drive the rise and fall of approval ratings and shape public opinion:

• Economic factors: Inflation, rising unemployment, and high prices tend to lower approval ratings. A growing GDP and stable personal finances can raise them significantly.
• Social policies and governance: Policies that directly affect people’s lives, such as healthcare, education, and taxes, often shift approval ratings. How a government responds to corruption scandals or abuse of power by officials can also cause sharp rises or drops.
• Crises and security: Wars, terrorist attacks, and crime test leadership and shift ratings. A government’s handling of natural disasters, health emergencies, and external threats can temporarily raise or lower approval, depending on how citizens judge the leadership’s competence.
• Other factors: Media coverage, a leader’s personal popularity, how long they have been in office, regional differences, and demographics such as age and gender also affect approval ratings.

How Are Approval Ratings Interpreted?

Approval rating data is generally read as follows:

• Above 50%: The leader has strong support and political leverage, and finds it easier to pass laws and work with others.
• 40% to 50%: The leader has mixed support, is likely to face pushback and weaker public trust, and is vulnerable to political shifts.
• Below 40%: Most people disapprove of the leader’s job performance. The leader has little support for new plans, is politically weak, and is likely to face a difficult reelection.

To interpret approval ratings correctly, look at long-term patterns rather than a single poll.

What Is a Good Approval Rating?

An approval rating is generally considered good when it is above 50%.

• Above 60%: Considered excellent. It signals broad support for the leader and is often seen during a national crisis or early in a new leader’s term.
• 50% to 60%: Considered good. The leader has strong backing.
• 40% to 50%: Considered average. More people may disapprove than approve.

A positive net approval rating, even one around +4, is also considered good.

Approval Ratings vs. Favorability Ratings

Approval ratings measure public approval of a leader’s job performance in office. They can change with current events, economic shifts, or specific policy decisions.

Favorability ratings measure public feelings about a person’s character, likability, and general image. They can apply to former leaders, candidates, and public figures who are not in office.

A person may disapprove of a politician’s performance in office but still like them personally, and vice versa.

Example: If 65% of people polled said they disapproved of the job George W. Bush was doing as president, 30% approved, and 5% were undecided, Bush’s net approval rating would be 30 − 65 = −35. That score shows substantially more people disapproved than approved. If instead 45% approved, 40% disapproved, and 15% were undecided, his net approval would be 45 − 40 = +5, which is slightly positive. A favorability poll would ask a different question, such as whether respondents have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of him as a person, and could produce different numbers.

How Reliable Are Approval Ratings?

Approval ratings are generally reliable, especially when conducted by reputable organizations that explain how the poll was carried out and by whom. Reputable pollsters report the source the sample was drawn from, the interview method used, and the exact question wording.

Why Do Approval Ratings Change?

Approval ratings change for several reasons:

• They are based on individual opinions, which are shaped by ideology, personal experience, and media coverage.
• Events outside the president’s control, such as the economy, international events, and natural disasters, can influence approval.
• Inaccurate answers from respondents, changes in question wording, and the share of undecided respondents all affect results.
• Polls can vary widely because of different methods. Experts use polling aggregators to find the average trend line.
• New leaders usually enjoy high ratings in their first few months in office, before their policies start to divide the public.

Frequently Asked Questions About Approval Ratings

1. Can I volunteer to be polled?
Volunteering is appreciated, but polls can’t be based on volunteers. Random sampling is the foundation of survey research, because it gives every person an equal chance of having their views captured.

2. Why am I never asked to take a poll?
You have roughly the same chance of being polled as anyone else. According to Pew Research Center, that chance is only about 1 in 26,000. Random sampling is what makes accurate ratings possible.

3. What good are polls?
Polls measure public opinion and document the public’s experiences on a wide range of subjects. The results inform academics, researchers, government officials, and policymakers in their decision-making.

4. Do people lie to pollsters?
Not all survey questions are answered accurately, but it’s impossible to gauge intent, so an inaccurate answer doesn’t necessarily mean someone lied.

5. How can I tell a high-quality poll from a lower-quality one?
A high-quality poll uses a representative sample and is transparent about its process. Good pollsters disclose where the sample came from, the exact question wording, and the interview methods used.

6. Do polls include people who are offline?
Yes. For an online panel such as Pew Research Center’s American Trends Panel (ATP) to be nationally representative, people who don’t use the internet must be represented on it in proportion to their share of the population.

7. Why should I participate in surveys?
Polls let you express your opinions to the nation’s leaders and the country as a whole. Public officials and other leaders pay attention to poll results and often take them into account when making decisions.

Conclusion

Approval ratings influence policy decisions, shape public opinion, and can signal reelection outcomes. However, they are not the only measure of a leader’s success, because they shift over time and reflect individual differences in opinion. They also have limits: they cover overall job performance, not specific policy areas or actions.